The annual release of Open Doors, a publication of the Institute of International Education, is anxiously awaited by many intensive English programs in the United States. Open Doors is the number one resource in the country for statistics on international student enrollment trends. It is used widely not only by language programs, but by international education and exchange organizations of all kinds to gauge their positions in the marketplace.
According to newly-released Open Doors statistics for the years 2003 - 2005, posted at opendoors.iienetwork.org, "Intensive English Programs enrolled 43,580 international students in 2005, a small decline of 2% from the previous year." This isn't the whole story, however, as the number of schools responding dropped from 194 for survey year 2004 to 164 for survey year 2005. Assuming these schools posted even modest gains over prior year, results for 2005 will be substantially better than 2004. Pending more information from IIE as to how many students these non-reporting schools accounted for in 2004, however, we are left somewhat in the dark. Keeping in mind the under-reporting, and assuming a uniform overlay of whatever numbers these schools would have produced, 2005 was not one for the record books – but wasn’t too bad.
According to the Leading Places of Origin chart, and looking at the differences in numbers of students provided by country from 2004 to 2005, eleven of the top 20 countries showed declines in enrollment. Applying a modest 10% increase across the board to account for under-reporting, however, only Japan, Brazil, Turkey, Germany, France, and Venezuela remain in the doghouse - Japan being a major concern with a decline of nearly 1000 students even after adding the boost.
Saudi Arabia clearly wins most improved with a staggering 300%+ gain over 2004, but artificially due implementation in 2005 of a special government scholarship program. The countries with the largest increases in number of students for 2005, aside from Saudi Arabia, were China and Vietnam. Based solely on reported results, both posted second straight years of double-digit increases: enrollment from China was up nearly 60% over 2003, and Vietnam more than doubled during this period. After a relatively flat prior year, the number of students from Switzerland shot up by nearly 40% in 2005.
According to both 2004 and 2005 survey results, the top five source countries accounted for about 60% of students from all countries, and for about 70% of students originating from the top 20 countries.
The truly good news in the statistics is that the average length of stay increased by 19% for the top 20 countries, and by 16% overall, from 2004 to 2005. These figures are somewhat influenced by the pronounced growth in Saudi students, not considering which the increase would have been around 10%. Of the top ten producers, only Brazil and Mexico dropped in the average number of weeks students attended – Brazil by one week and Mexico by two and a half weeks. The increase in average length of stay for Japanese students from 10.5 weeks to 14.5 weeks more than offset the decline in the number of students from that country.
For not having done better, we can continue to blame our competitors in Canada and Australia, who are aggressively attacking traditional U.S. markets - and have a distinct advantage as their countries do not require a student visa for short-term study. We can further continue to blame U.S. visa policies, particularly the individual interview requirement. With very few exceptions, U.S. law requires that each visa applicant see a U.S. Consular Officer in order to obtain a visa. Prospective students outside cities in which the U.S. has consulates must pay a high cost in both travel expense and inconvenience to even attempt to obtain a visa, which considerably narrows the potential market. The interview requirement also causes significant backups at consulates in many countries in the months preceding peak IEP enrollment seasons, resulting in many U.S. prospects simply going elsewhere.
AAIEP continues to lobby the U.S. Congress, the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department for improved access, which is the key to increasing enrollment. Further, to require language schools to be accredited in order to be able to issue certificates of eligibility (I-20s) for study in the U.S. This latter measure would ensure that all students attend bona-fide educational institutions.
AAIEP members I have spoken to recently have indicated that 2006 was a good year, and are even more buoyant in talking about 2007. If 2006 proves to be a break-out year for IEP enrollment, and we hope that it is, we will be doing our best as an Association to see that all share in the recovery.
Don Back, President
AAIEP - American Association of Intensive English Programs
president@aaiep.org
Reference: LEADING PLACES OF ORIGIN OF IEP STUDENTS, 2003-2005. Open Doors 2006, Report on International Educational Exchange, Institute of International Education (opendoors.iienetwork.org/page/89241).
